First of all, there is no reason for us to doubt that the Memphis Grizzlies will handle the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round of the playoffs. There is a reason the Grizzlies are the #2 seed and the Lakers had to scratch and claw to avoid getting ousted in the play-in mini-tournament.
But let’s take a sobering analysis of why the Grizzlies will and will not beat the Lakers in the first round.
Why the Grizzlies Will Beat the Lakers in the First Round
1. OVERHYPED LAKERS REBOUND
We can also chalk this up to the obligatory, perennial hype that comes with any big market team like the Lakers—even without King James. Both media and the NBA want the Lakers to be competitive: it’s all about the Benjamins (same reason Lebron made a shitty Space Jam sequel or is creating boring game shows).
But away from the simulacrum of the LA lime-light we find reality: the Lakers still aren’t that good—just as they weren’t good at the beginning of the year when Lebron was healthy (meaning, don’t even try the spin that Lebron’s injury is why their record is so poor, as that just isn’t true). Hell, they needed overtime to beat a Timberwolves team that was playing without Gobert (setting aside questions about whether or not the Timberwolves play better or worse with or without Gobert, as we could ask same of Karl-Anthony Towns, for the Timberwolves are utterly irrational).
Let’s look at their last 15 games, where they went on an otherwise impressive 10-5 run to round out the season. Teams to whom they lost in that 15-game span: Clippers (legitimate team); Bulls (legitimate team); Mavericks (were arguably trying to tank by March 17); Rockets (were definitely trying to tank by March 15); Knicks (were also definitely trying to tank by March 12). What are some of the notable victories? Jazz (tankers); Suns (had first spot locked up, at least for the April 9 victory); Rockets (tankers); Magic (tankers); Pelicans (arguably tankers).
2. LAKERS ARE OLD
Another way to put this: the Grizzlies are young—and have depth with such youth. And really, there isn’t much to say about this other than that: the hallmark stars of the Lakers clearly and obviously get easily winded, and the style of Grizzlies play is aggressive and fast-paced. Memphis ranks #2 in fast break points in the NBA, and while the Lakers rank #4, they struggle to cover past breaks defensively (and their offensive fast break points have more to do with their vision and physicality, which we will cover shortly). Lakers in general, Lebron in particular, should be more worried about getting their new AARP cards in the mail than chasing another ring. They can’t chase that hard without needing an oxygen mask or iron lung.
3. HOME COURT
This is no joke: out of 41 games at home, the Grizz only lost 6. Yes, 6. That means winning in Memphis is a tall order, regardless of whether or not your name is King James or the Lakers. The Grizzlies lost the regular season series against the Lakers 1-2, but they did beat them on their home court, and they lost by only 1 point in one of the two away games. And the Grizzlies have home court advantage. That’s that.
Why the Grizzlies Will Lose to the Lakers in the First Round
1. EXPERIENCE
Nobody can deny the importance of experience when it comes to the playoffs. Knowing how to handle the pressure and perform in clutch moments is an essential detail of any successful NBA champion. In many ways, if not most ways, the Lakers have more experience in one man (King James) than the entirety of the Grizz outfit. The Grizz will need to draw heavily from the experience they do have—and the lessons learned from such—in order to compete with the vets on the Lakers team.
2. SIZE
The Grizz are still out Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, so they will be relying heavily on Jaren Jackson, Jr. (J3) for size and defense and Dillon Brooks for defense. But neither of these two guys have the size of somebody like Steven Adams, and both of them are very foul-prone. The Grizzlies will need to force the Lakers to work from the perimeter through clever zone play, and they will need to avoid having J3 or Brooks fouling out, especially in clutch, late-game moments (and you know Memphis won’tbe getting the whistle as much as the Lakers). Otherwise, King James and Anthony Davis will alone dominate physically throughout the series.
3. KING JAMES
The man has lost in the first round only once in 14 appearances. King James is a ringer, an X factor—a force of athletic nature that you can never doubt. Shut down King James and win the series.
OUR PREDICTION: GRIZZLIES OVER LAKERS 4-2
